Australia’s resources and energy export earnings are forecast to break fresh records
15 July 2019
The
June 2019 edition of the Resources and Energy Quarterly was released
today by the Department of Industry, Innovation and Science. The report
shows that Australia’s
resources and energy export earnings reached an
estimated $275 billion in 2018–19, a record high. It is increasingly
likely that export earnings will surpass this record in 2019–20, now
forecast to hit $285 billion.
The strong figures are primarily the result of high iron ore prices. A
tailings
dam collapse at one of Vale’s iron ore
mines, and subsequent
associated mine closures, has led to a sharp and sustained drop in
Brazil’s iron ore exports, which has tightened up the seaborne iron ore
market and driven prices up. Ongoing weakness in the Aussie dollar is
also expected to boost export earnings.
However, as Chief Economist Mark Cully notes, ‘Like any forecast, this
one carries risks of a shortfall — notably if trade tensions between the
US and its major trading partners, particularly China, increase.
Disruptions to trade could hit global manufacturers particularly hard,
and the impacts will inevitably flow on to the commodity producers who
provide them with raw materials, said Mr Cully.
The world industrial production cycle has continued to slow in recent
months, and looks set to slow further. Weaker commodity prices and a
modest recovery in the Aussie dollar are expected to drive a decline in
Australia’s resource and energy export earnings, to $260 billion in
2020–21.
This edition of the Resources and Energy Quarterly contains two special
topics. One delves into the Australian gold industry — Australia has
world’s largest gold resources and prices are going up, potentially
displacing thermal coal in 2019–20 as Australia’s fourth most valuable
export commodity. The other provides an in-depth examination of the
history of, and longer-term outlook for, uranium and nuclear power, and
Australia’s potential role as a supplier of uranium in the slow comeback
in nuclear power.
For more information and to access the report, visit Resources and
Energy Quarterly,
https://publications.industry.gov.au/publications/resourcesandenergyquarterlyjune2019/index.html.
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Source: Australian Government - www.industry.gov.au
Contact: N/A
External Links: https://publications.industry.gov.au/publications/resourcesandenergyquarterlyjune2019/index.html
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