ANU predictions of housing over supply in Sydney misunderstanding the swing to urban living
08 December 2017
Urban Taskforce: The academic report by researchers
from the
Australian National University (ANU) that outlines the
potential over supply of
housing in
Sydney misunderstands the strong
swing to inner city
urban living, says the Urban Taskforce.
“The academic report by Australian National University researchers Cukko
Joseph and Ben Phillips seems to be based on search algorithms rather
than the reality of the market place,” says Urban Taskforce CEO Chris
Johnson. “The researchers utilise the search algorithm Newton-Raphsin in
the Gregwt SAS Code in their 22 page report to conclude that there is a
major oversupply of new homes in Australian cities but
NSW government
data indicates an undersupply.”
“The ANU report focusses on a supposed over supply of 5,900 new homes in
Inner Sydney but rents are still high in this region indicating an
undersupply. The NSW Government predictions are that 40,000 new homes
are required each year for Metropolitan Sydney for 20 years yet we are
currently only at 35,000 new homes a year.”
“The Sydney inner city housing market is being driven by a swing to
urban living where young couples and older downsizers are looking for a
cosmopolitan urban lifestyle that is close to amenities and public
transport. Predictions on housing demand must understand this change in
living preferences that is quite different to a few decades ago.”
“The study does acknowledge that its methodology does not account for
real demand for new housing. A ‘real demand’ analysis would incorporate
consumer preferences and other economic drivers, such as interest rates
or employment’. The study also admits there are limitations in its
analysis – in terms of its conceptual basis and the data it relies upon.
It also states that the study ‘does not conclude that people’s housing
needs are being met’.”
“While all research reports are useful, inputs into the current
discussion on housing supply and demand must be balanced with the
extensive demographic research undertaken by government agencies.”
“Our concern with the ANU statements is that they could encourage
governments at state and local level to put a brake on housing supply by
adding further levies and by slowing down
planning approvals. The end
product would be to dramatically reduce supply and so drive up the price
of housing creating affordability problems.”
“The Urban Taskforce urges governments at all levels to reduce levies on
new housing and to simplify the planning system so that affordable
housing can be delivered for those keen to own their own home as well as
for those that prefer to rent.”
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Source: Urban Taskforce - www.urbantaskforce.com.au
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